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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton Town Win | 43.8% | 50.0% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.3% | 54.6% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Northampton Town's attack against Swindon Town's back line.
Northampton Town welcome Swindon Town in the League Two. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Northampton Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Swindon Town travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Northampton Town at 44%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Northampton Town average 1.0 goals per game and Swindon Town manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 52% of Northampton Town's home games and 52% of Swindon Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Northampton Town Win | @2.15 | 43.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 26.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Swindon Town Win | @3.25 | 29.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 49.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.83 | 50.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Northampton Town the favourite with a 43.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Northampton Town @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.25, Swindon Town @ 3.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Northampton Town vs Swindon Town kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Northampton Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.