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All eyes on New York City FC as Philadelphia Union travel to face New York City FC.
A MLS fixture between New York City FC and Philadelphia Union. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. New York City FC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Philadelphia Union travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.65. Model probability 62% vs implied 61%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. New York City FC come in on a D-W-W-L-D run, Philadelphia Union have gone W-W-W-L-D, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. New York City FC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York City FC create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Philadelphia Union create 1.7 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Philadelphia Union look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. New York City FC are scoring 1.4 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Philadelphia Union manage 1.7 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 62%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York City FC Win | @1.67 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 22.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Philadelphia Union Win | @4.00 | 23.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.65 | 52.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 47.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 61.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.27 | 38.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.52 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes New York City FC the favourite with a 52.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: New York City FC @ 1.67, Draw @ 4.00, Philadelphia Union @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 23:00 in the MLS.