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A test of nerve as much as quality when Charlotte welcome Columbus Crew.
Charlotte welcome Columbus Crew in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Charlotte will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Columbus Crew travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Columbus Crew have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Charlotte create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. Columbus Crew create 1.5 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.2. On the quality of chances, Columbus Crew look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Charlotte are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Columbus Crew manage 1.6 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Charlotte Win | @2.10 | 43.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.70 | 21.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Columbus Crew Win | @2.90 | 37.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 54.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.30 | 45.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 57.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.22 | 42.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
The bookmakers make Charlotte the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: Charlotte @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.70, Columbus Crew @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Charlotte vs Columbus Crew kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.