Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
S
S. Surridge
1+ Shots on Target
78% (model)
S. Surridge averages 1.36 SoT/match (14 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
E
Evander
1+ Shots on Target
77% (model)
Evander averages 1.63 SoT/match (19 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
H
H. Mukhtar
1+ Shots on Target
72% (model)
H. Mukhtar averages 1.15 SoT/match (20 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
S
S. Surridge
Anytime Scorer
60% (model)
S. Surridge on 0.86 goals/match (14 apps), home vs opp conceding 1.30 goals/game
K
K. Denkey
1+ Shots on Target
59% (model)
K. Denkey averages 1.00 SoT/match (19 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Fortress vs Force: FC Cincinnati Test Nashville SC's Home Record
Nashville SC 51%, the draw 21%, FC Cincinnati 27%. That's the shape of this one.
Nashville SC have won three of their last five; FC Cincinnati have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this MLS tie.
S. Surridge has been Nashville SC's spearhead, with 12 goals and 0 assists in 14 appearances, averaging 1.36 shots on target per game. Evander has been FC Cincinnati's main threat, with 11 goals and 8 assists in 19 appearances, averaging 1.63 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 68% vs implied 69%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
S
S. Surridge
Nashville SC · Attacker
12 goals in 14 apps
1.4 shots on target a game
E
Evander
FC Cincinnati · Midfielder
11 goals · 8 assists in 19 apps
1.6 shots on target a game
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Nashville SC have won 12 of 18 at home (66%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
✈
Strong Travellers
FC Cincinnati win 61% of their away games (W11 from 18). Dangerous visitors
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 93% of FC Cincinnati's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. Nashville SC come in on a W-W-D-L-W run, FC Cincinnati have gone W-D-W-L-W, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. Nashville SC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Nashville SC create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. FC Cincinnati create 1.4 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of -0.6. The underlying numbers clearly favour Nashville SC. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nashville SC are scoring 1.6 a game (2.1 of those at home) and FC Cincinnati manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. Nashville SC score in 81% of their games and FC Cincinnati in 79%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.9 goals when they meet, with 6 of the last 10 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Nashville SC have won 3, FC Cincinnati 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.9 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: FC Cincinnati 2-1 Nashville SC, Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati, Nashville SC 2-2 FC Cincinnati.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Nashville SC HT
2.10
-
Draw HT
2.50
-
FC Cincinnati HT
4.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Nashville SC · xG
For: 1.77/g
Against: 1.67/g
📊 FC Cincinnati · xG
For: 1.36/g
Against: 1.91/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Nashville SC Win |
@1.75
|
51.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.90
|
21.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
FC Cincinnati Win |
@3.70
|
27.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.44
|
68.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.50
|
31.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.44
|
66.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.75
|
33.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.12
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.70
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Team Stats
Nashville SC
Played
37
Record
17W-6D-14L
Goals F/A
61/53
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Overall Form
WWDLW
Home Form
WWWWW
Home Record
12W-3D-3L
FC Cincinnati
Played
38
Record
22W-5D-11L
Goals F/A
55/49
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Overall Form
WDWLW
Away Form
DLDDD
Away Record
11W-2D-5L
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Head to Head
3 Home Wins
3 Draws
4 Away Wins
3.9
Avg Goals
8/10
BTTS
6/10
Over 2.5
2025-09-13
Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati
2025-03-30
Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati
2024-09-22
Nashville SC 2-2 FC Cincinnati
2024-05-29
Nashville SC 2-0 FC Cincinnati
2023-08-05
Nashville SC 1-1 FC Cincinnati
2023-07-15
Nashville SC 1-3 FC Cincinnati
2023-03-26
Nashville SC 0-1 FC Cincinnati
2023-02-17
Nashville SC 6-3 FC Cincinnati
2022-07-23
Nashville SC 1-1 FC Cincinnati
2021-10-27
Nashville SC 6-3 FC Cincinnati
Full Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.5%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
2.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-1
1.5%
4-0
1.1%
4-2
1.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Nashville SC or FC Cincinnati (double chance)
85%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Over 1 second half goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
83%
@1.29
Betano
-
Nashville SC or Draw (double chance)
82%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Under 4.5 goals
81%
@1.30
10Bet
-
FC Cincinnati over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 2 first half goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
FC Cincinnati under 5.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Nashville SC under 7.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
-
FC Cincinnati over 2.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →