Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Marseille?

Our model rates Marseille as the favourite with a 42.6% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Monaco 32.4%, draw 23.0%, Marseille 42.6%.

Where can I watch Monaco vs Marseille?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Marseille?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 58.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 41.8%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 823 picks Ligue 1 Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:45

Monaco vs Marseille Predictions & Odds

M Monaco 32.4% @2.50

VS Draw 23.0%

M Marseille 42.6% @2.50

Our model call Leans Marseille, but only just A 43% call, draw at 23%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Monaco 32% 2.50 Draw 23% 3.50 Marseille 43% 2.50

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 42% 2.62 Over 2.5 58% 1.50 Over 1.5 @1.17

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 39% 2.62 Yes 61% 1.44

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Monaco Win	32.4%	44.4%	12 pts under
Both Teams to Score	61.4%	69.9%	9 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	58.2%	66.7%	8 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🔥 Marseille are on a 3-game winning streak

01The read

Monaco Host Marseille: Our Prediction

Marseille arrive on a 3-game winning run, yet the model still only gives them 43% here.

Marseille slight edge (43%) | Both teams to score (61%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

A Ligue 1 meeting between Monaco (5th, 3 pts) and Marseille (1st, 3 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.

Our verdict

Marginal call: Marseille at just 43%. With the draw at 23%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Marseille, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.

Our pick

Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 61% vs implied 69%. The market is 8pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model61%

Market69%

Key facts

📉

Due a Correction Monaco scoring +0.4 more than their chances suggest while Marseille are scoring fewer than theirs by -0.6. Expect this gap to narrow

🔥

Travelling Hot Marseille bring a 3-game winning run into this one

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Monaco's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

A concern for Marseille: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Monaco create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Marseille create 1.8 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Monaco: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.2 a game, well below their 1.7 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Marseille's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Goals look likely here. Monaco average 1.0 per game (1.0 at home) and Marseille chip in with 4.0 (4.0 away). Defensively, Monaco concede 1.8 at home and Marseille leak 1.2 on the road. We make it 58% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 61%. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Monaco create chances worth 1.7 a game and Marseille 1.8. Combined, that's 3.4 a game from open play alone.

Both teams score in 59% of Monaco's home games and 35% of Marseille's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Marseille have goals in them (4.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

In the last 10 meetings: Monaco have won 4, Marseille 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Monaco 2-1 Marseille, Marseille 1-0 Monaco, Monaco 3-0 Marseille, Marseille 2-1 Monaco.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%) and 1-3 (8%).

First Half Result

Monaco HT 2.90
Draw HT 2.45
Marseille HT 2.80

Team Intel

📊 Monaco · xG

For: 1.65/g Against: 1.50/g

⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.35/g, possibly running hot

📊 Marseille · xG

For: 1.79/g Against: 1.41/g

💎 Underscoring xG by 0.59/g, value possible

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Monaco vs Marseille Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Monaco Win	@2.50	32.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.50	23.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Marseille Win	@2.50	42.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.44	61.4%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.62	38.6%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.50	58.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.62	41.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.17	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.30	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.30	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.66	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Monaco

1W streak

Last 5 WLLWD

At home LD

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 65% FTS 21%

Marseille

3W streak

Last 5 WWWLD

On the road WLL

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 50% FTS 24%

Monaco vs Marseille Team Stats

AS Monaco FC

Position 5

Played 1

Record 1W-0D-0L

Goals F/A 1/0

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 3

Overall Form WLLWD

Home Form LD

Home Record 0W-0D-0L

Olympique de Marseille

Position 1

Played 1

Record 1W-0D-0L

Goals F/A 4/0

Avg Goals Scored 4.00

Points 3

Overall Form WWWLD

Away Form WLL

Away Record 0W-0D-0L

Monaco vs Marseille Head to Head

4 Home Wins 2 Draws 4 Away Wins

2.9 Avg Goals

6/10 BTTS

6/10 Over 2.5

2026-04-05 Monaco 2-1 Marseille

2025-12-14 Monaco 0-1 Marseille

2025-04-12 Monaco 3-0 Marseille

2024-12-01 Monaco 1-2 Marseille

2024-01-27 Monaco 2-2 Marseille

2023-09-30 Monaco 3-2 Marseille

2023-01-28 Monaco 1-1 Marseille

2022-11-13 Monaco 2-3 Marseille

2022-03-06 Monaco 1-0 Marseille

2021-09-11 Monaco 0-2 Marseille

Full Monaco vs Marseille head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 8.4%

1-3 8.2%

0-3 7.6%

1-4 6.0%

0-4 5.5%

2-2 4.6%

2-3 4.5%

1-5 3.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 2 goals 85% @1.24 Pinnacle
Monaco under 2.5 goals 84% @1.25 Bet365
Marseille under 6.5 corners 84% @1.19 Unibet
Marseille under 2.5 goals 83% @1.25 Betano
Under 4.5 goals 83% @1.26 Betano
Under 2 first half goals 83% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Marseille over 2.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Monaco or Marseille (double chance) 82% @1.31 1xBet
Over 0.5 first half goals 81% @1.31 Betano
Over 1 second half goals 79% @1.26 Marathon Bet
Monaco under 6.5 corners 78% @1.28 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 77% @1.36 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Monaco v Marseille builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 77% @ 1.30
2 Both Teams to Score 66% @ 1.51
3 Over 2.5 Goals 61% @ 1.63

@3.18 £10 returns £31.82

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The record

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verified hit rate across 823 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Monaco vs Marseille: FAQs

Who will win Monaco vs Marseille?

Our model makes Marseille the favourite with a 42.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Monaco vs Marseille?

Best available odds: Monaco @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.50, Marseille @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Monaco vs Marseille kick off?

Monaco vs Marseille kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Monaco vs Marseille?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 61.4% probability.

Monaco vs Marseille prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Marseille to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.