Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
M
Maurício
1+ Shots on Target
64% (model)
Maurício averages 0.76 SoT/match (21 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
A
Alesson
1+ Shots on Target
52% (model)
Alesson averages 0.67 SoT/match (21 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. López
1+ Shots on Target
52% (model)
J. López averages 0.81 SoT/match (21 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
A
Allan
1+ Shots on Target
47% (model)
Allan averages 0.71 SoT/match (21 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. Arias
1+ Shots on Target
43% (model)
J. Arias averages 0.63 SoT/match (19 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
53% (model)
Corners: Mirassol avg 3.7 for/5.7 against, Palmeiras avg 4.8 for/3.7 against → expected 8.9 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
40% (model)
Cards: Mirassol avg 2.3/game, Palmeiras avg 1.8/game → expected 4.2 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
58% (model)
Fouls: Mirassol avg 12.8/game, Palmeiras avg 12.8/game → expected 25.7 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
52% (model)
Shots: Mirassol avg 10.4/game, Palmeiras avg 16.5/game → expected 26.9 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Neighbours Collide: Mirassol and Palmeiras Separated by Fine Margins
Mirassol have lost 2 straight, and the model makes the visitors 48% favourites.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) host Palmeiras (2nd, 76 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
Eduardo has been Mirassol's spearhead, with 3 goals and 0 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 0.38 shots on target per game. J. López has been Palmeiras's main threat, with 8 goals and 4 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 0.81 shots on target per game.
Key men
E
Eduardo
Mirassol · Midfielder
3 goals in 16 apps
0.4 shots on target a game
J
J. López
Palmeiras · Attacker
8 goals · 4 assists in 21 apps
0.8 shots on target a game
Key facts
✈
Strong Travellers
Palmeiras win 57% of their away games (W11 from 19). Dangerous visitors
📊
H2H Favours Away
Palmeiras have won 6 of the last 9 encounters. They have a psychological edge
📉
Home Wobble
Mirassol arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 73% of Mirassol's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Mirassol have gone L-L-W-D-W, Palmeiras's L-D-W-W-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Mirassol create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Palmeiras create 1.4 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Mirassol are scoring 1.7 a game (2.2 of those at home) and Palmeiras manage 1.7 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 49%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%. Two or more goals at @1.30 is a steadier alternative for accas.
▸ Team news & context
The stakes are high for Mirassol at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Palmeiras face a tough afternoon.
A result here could reshape the title picture. Palmeiras (2nd) visit Mirassol (4th) knowing anything less than a win could see them slip.
Palmeiras prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Mirassol against this setup.
In the last 9 meetings: Mirassol have won 2, Palmeiras 6, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 5 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Palmeiras 1-0 Mirassol, Palmeiras 1-0 Mirassol, Mirassol 2-1 Palmeiras, Palmeiras 1-1 Mirassol.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (8%).
First Half Result
-
Mirassol HT
3.90
-
Draw HT
2.15
-
Palmeiras HT
2.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Mirassol · xG
For: 1.52/g
Against: 1.22/g
📊 Palmeiras · xG
For: 1.41/g
Against: 1.20/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Mirassol Win |
@3.50
|
22.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
27.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Palmeiras Win |
@2.05
|
48.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.80
|
47.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
52.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.95
|
48.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.85
|
51.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Team Stats
Mirassol
Position
4
Played
38
Record
18W-13D-7L
Goals F/A
63/39
Avg Goals Scored
1.70
Points
67
Overall Form
LLWDW
Home Form
LWWWD
Home Record
12W-7D-0L
Palmeiras
Position
2
Played
38
Record
23W-7D-8L
Goals F/A
66/33
Avg Goals Scored
1.70
Points
76
Overall Form
LDWWL
Away Form
LWWWW
Away Record
11W-2D-6L
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Head to Head
2 Home Wins
1 Draws
6 Away Wins
2.8
Avg Goals
6/9
BTTS
5/9
Over 2.5
2026-03-15
Mirassol 0-1 Palmeiras
2026-01-17
Mirassol 0-1 Palmeiras
2025-11-09
Mirassol 2-1 Palmeiras
2025-07-16
Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras
2025-02-23
Mirassol 2-3 Palmeiras
2024-02-24
Mirassol 1-3 Palmeiras
2023-02-02
Mirassol 0-2 Palmeiras
2021-04-25
Mirassol 2-1 Palmeiras
2020-02-16
Mirassol 1-3 Palmeiras
Full Mirassol vs Palmeiras head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
2.9%
2-3
2.4%
1-4
1.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
Smart
80%
@1.33
Bet365
-
Mirassol under 7.5 corners
Smart
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Paulinho Sampaio 1+ shots on target
78%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Jose Flaco Lopez 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Vitor Roque 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
Combined 3.75
· £5 returns
£18.74
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Larson Santos 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Luis Felipe Pacheco 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Mirassol under 7.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Palmeiras or Draw (double chance)
83%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Palmeiras under 7.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
82%
@1.29
Betano
-
Under 13.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Mirassol or Palmeiras (double chance)
81%
@1.34
1xBet
-
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners
81%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Under 2 second half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
80%
@1.33
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →