Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
G
Gabriel Pec
1+ Shots on Target
86% (model)
Gabriel Pec averages 2.07 SoT/match (14 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. Paintsil
1+ Shots on Target
63% (model)
J. Paintsil averages 1.11 SoT/match (18 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
M
M. Ingvartsen
1+ Shots on Target
63% (model)
M. Ingvartsen averages 0.90 SoT/match (21 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
G
Gabriel Pec
2+ Shots on Target
58% (model)
Gabriel Pec averages 2.07 SoT/match (14 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
M
M. Ingvartsen
Anytime Scorer
56% (model)
M. Ingvartsen on 0.52 goals/match (21 apps), home vs opp conceding 1.90 goals/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Who Wins?
San Diego 51%, the draw 22%, Los Angeles Galaxy 27%. That's the shape of this one.
San Diego (1st, 63 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Los Angeles Galaxy side (14th, 30 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
M. Ingvartsen has been San Diego's spearhead, with 11 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 0.90 shots on target per game. M. Reus has been Los Angeles Galaxy's main threat, with 4 goals and 6 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.55 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 68% vs implied 69%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
M
M. Ingvartsen
San Diego · Attacker
11 goals · 3 assists in 21 apps
0.9 shots on target a game
M
M. Reus
Los Angeles Galaxy · Midfielder
4 goals · 6 assists in 20 apps
0.6 shots on target a game
Key facts
🚫
Poor Away Form
Los Angeles Galaxy have won just 0 of 17 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 65% of San Diego's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
San Diego create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Los Angeles Galaxy create 1.5 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour San Diego. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for San Diego: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.5 a game, well below their 1.8 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. San Diego are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Los Angeles Galaxy manage 1.4 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. San Diego score in 88% of their games and Los Angeles Galaxy in 74%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. San Diego create chances worth 1.8 a game and Los Angeles Galaxy 1.5. Combined, that's 3.4 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
San Diego are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Los Angeles Galaxy, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
San Diego HT
2.25
-
Draw HT
2.62
-
Los Angeles Galaxy HT
3.50
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 San Diego · xG
For: 1.81/g
Against: 1.36/g
📊 Los Angeles Galaxy · xG
For: 1.54/g
Against: 1.99/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
San Diego Win |
@1.80
|
50.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
22.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Los Angeles Galaxy Win |
@3.40
|
27.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.44
|
68.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.62
|
31.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.44
|
67.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.88
|
32.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.12
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Team Stats
San Diego
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Position
14
Played
34
Record
7W-9D-18L
Goals F/A
46/66
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
30
Overall Form
DWLDD
Away Record
0W-7D-10L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.9%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
4.2%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2.6%
4-2
2.0%
4-0
1.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 4.5 goals
79%
@1.32
Pinnacle
-
Los Angeles Galaxy under 5.5 corners
Smart
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Lewis Morgan 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Marcus Ingvartsen 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Gabriel Pirani 1+ shots on target
77%
@1.30
Bet365
Combined 3.19
· £5 returns
£15.95
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
San Diego or Los Angeles Galaxy (double chance)
85%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Dagur Thorhallsson 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Elijah Wynder 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 1 second half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Los Angeles Galaxy under 5.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Los Angeles Galaxy under 2 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
San Diego under 7.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 6.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
San Diego or Draw (double chance)
81%
@1.29
William Hill
-
Los Angeles Galaxy over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.29
Betano
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