03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Lecce Win |
14.2% |
20.2% |
6 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
47.8% |
45.7% |
2 pts over
|
| Both Teams to Score |
46.8% |
48.8% |
2 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 9.5 Match Corners
52% (model)
Corners: Lecce avg 4.5 for/5.3 against, AS Roma avg 5.2 for/4.7 against → expected 9.8 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
48% (model)
Cards: Lecce avg 2.8/game, AS Roma avg 1.8/game → expected 4.6 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
57% (model)
Fouls: Lecce avg 13.8/game, AS Roma avg 11.8/game → expected 25.6 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
42% (model)
Shots: Lecce avg 9.0/game, AS Roma avg 12.8/game → expected 21.8 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🔥
Lecce are on a 3-game winning streak
🔥
AS Roma are on a 5-game winning streak
01The read
Top vs Top: Lecce and AS Roma Battle for Supremacy
The model makes AS Roma 59% favourites here. Lecce carry the 14% upset.
AS Roma slight edge (59%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
A Serie A clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. Lecce (3rd, 3 pts) and AS Roma (1st, 3 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Our verdict
AS Roma shade it at 59%, though Lecce won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing AS Roma with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickAS Roma to win at @1.67. Model probability 59% vs implied 60%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Lecce fail to score in 50% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
📊
H2H Favours Away
AS Roma have won 8 of the last 10 encounters. They have a psychological edge
🎯
Chances Favour Away
AS Roma come out at +0.8 a game on chance quality against Lecce's -0.7. The visitors are creating far better chances
🔥
Creative Force
AS Roma creating chances worth 2.3 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home
🔥
Hot Streak
Lecce have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
▸ Form & goals
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Lecce average 2.0 per game and AS Roma chip in with 4.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. AS Roma could be in for a similar cool-off. 4.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.7. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: AS Roma come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.7. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lecce create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.7 a game on the balance. AS Roma create 1.7 (giving up 0.9) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, AS Roma look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. AS Roma are also scoring more than their chances suggest (4.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.7). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Lecce are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and AS Roma manage 4.0 (4.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%. Two or more goals at @1.36 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 37% of Lecce's home games and 42% of AS Roma's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
The stakes are high for Lecce at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. AS Roma face a tough afternoon.
A result here could reshape the title picture. AS Roma (1st) visit Lecce (3rd) knowing anything less than a win could see them slip.
Lecce are in great shape right now, banging in 2.0 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. AS Roma are similarly well-balanced. 4.0 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Lecce have won 0, AS Roma 8, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: AS Roma 1-0 Lecce, Lecce 0-2 AS Roma, Lecce 0-1 AS Roma, AS Roma 4-1 Lecce.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (8%).
First Half Result
-
Lecce HT
5.50
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
AS Roma HT
2.20
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Lecce · xG
For: 0.91/g
Against: 1.57/g
📊 AS Roma · xG
For: 1.68/g
Against: 0.92/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.42/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Lecce vs AS Roma Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Lecce Win |
@5.00
|
14.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
AS Roma Win |
@1.67
|
58.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.10
|
46.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.70
|
53.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.20
|
47.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.75
|
52.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Lecce vs AS Roma Team Stats
US Lecce
Position
3
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
2/0
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WWWLW
Home Form
WLD
Home Record
0W-0D-0L
AS Roma
Position
1
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
4/0
Avg Goals Scored
4.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WWWWW
Away Form
WWW
Away Record
0W-0D-0L
Lecce vs AS Roma Head to Head
0 Home Wins
2 Draws
8 Away Wins
2.5
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
5/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-22
Lecce 0-1 AS Roma
2026-01-06
Lecce 0-2 AS Roma
2025-03-29
Lecce 0-1 AS Roma
2024-12-07
Lecce 1-4 AS Roma
2024-04-01
Lecce 0-0 AS Roma
2023-11-05
Lecce 1-2 AS Roma
2023-02-11
Lecce 1-1 AS Roma
2022-10-09
Lecce 1-2 AS Roma
2022-01-20
Lecce 1-3 AS Roma
2020-02-23
Lecce 0-4 AS Roma
Full Lecce vs AS Roma head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.8%
1-3
7.4%
0-1
6.6%
0-3
6.1%
2-3
4.5%
1-4
4.4%
0-4
3.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
AS Roma under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.26
Pinnacle
-
Under 2 second half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Lecce under 5.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Lecce or AS Roma (double chance)
82%
@1.30
William Hill
-
AS Roma under 7.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
80%
@1.30
William Hill
-
AS Roma over 3.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
78%
@1.35
10Bet
-
Under 3 goals
78%
@1.35
Pinnacle
-
Lecce under 1 goals
76%
@1.36
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →