Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 8.5 Match Corners
37% (model)
Corners: Inter Miami avg 3.0 for/4.0 against, CF Montreal avg 5.0 for/3.4 against → expected 7.7 match corners
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Over 4.5 Match Cards
67% (model)
Cards: Inter Miami avg 3.7/game, CF Montreal avg 2.0/game → expected 5.7 match cards
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls
74% (model)
Fouls: Inter Miami avg 15.3/game, CF Montreal avg 12.6/game → expected 27.9 match fouls
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Over 22.5 Match Shots
22% (model)
Shots: Inter Miami avg 10.0/game, CF Montreal avg 9.3/game → expected 19.3 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Inter Miami Host CF Montreal: Our Prediction
The model makes Inter Miami 63% favourites here. CF Montreal carry the 17% upset.
Inter Miami have taken 8 points from their last five; CF Montreal have taken five points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this MLS tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickInter Miami to win at @1.44. Model probability 63% vs implied 69%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Inter Miami have won 15 of 21 at home (71%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
⚖
Class Gap
Goal difference tells the story: Inter Miami at +41 vs CF Montreal at -26. A chasm in quality
🔥
Chances Flowing
Inter Miami creating chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 77% of Inter Miami's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. Inter Miami come in on a D-L-D-W-W run, CF Montreal have gone W-D-D-L-L, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. Inter Miami's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. One thing to keep in mind about Inter Miami. They're scoring 2.5 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 2.4. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+1.2), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Inter Miami create chances worth 2.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +1.2 a game on the balance. CF Montreal create 1.3 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Inter Miami. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Inter Miami are scoring 2.5 goals a game off chances worth just 2.4. That's +1.2 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. A worry for Inter Miami: the chances they're creating lately are worth 2.1 a game, well below their 2.4 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals look likely here. Inter Miami average 2.5 per game (2.8 at home) and CF Montreal chip in with 1.0 (1.2 away). Defensively, Inter Miami concede 1.4 at home and CF Montreal leak 1.6 on the road. We make it 76% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 70%. Inter Miami score in 88% of their games and CF Montreal in 65%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.6 goals when they meet, with 7 of the last 10 producing three or more. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Inter Miami create chances worth 2.4 a game and CF Montreal 1.3. Combined, that's 3.8 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
Inter Miami are all-out attack: 2.5 goals a game, but they leak 1.5 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at CF Montreal, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Inter Miami have won 5, CF Montreal 4, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.6 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami, CF Montreal 1-4 Inter Miami, Inter Miami 4-2 CF Montreal.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
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Inter Miami HT
1.85
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Draw HT
2.80
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CF Montreal HT
4.60
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Inter Miami · xG
For: 2.44/g
Against: 1.29/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 1.16/g, possibly running hot
📊 CF Montreal · xG
For: 1.33/g
Against: 1.49/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Inter Miami Win |
@1.44
|
62.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.80
|
17.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
CF Montreal Win |
@5.00
|
17.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.40
|
70.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.75
|
30.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.28
|
76.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@3.90
|
24.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.07
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@9.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@1.67
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@2.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Team Stats
Inter Miami
Played
40
Record
24W-8D-8L
Goals F/A
101/60
Avg Goals Scored
2.50
Overall Form
DLDWW
Home Form
DWWWL
Home Record
15W-3D-3L
CF Montreal
Played
34
Record
6W-10D-18L
Goals F/A
34/60
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Overall Form
WDDLL
Away Form
WLDL
Away Record
4W-4D-9L
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Head to Head
5 Home Wins
1 Draws
4 Away Wins
3.6
Avg Goals
7/10
BTTS
7/10
Over 2.5
2026-07-25
Inter Miami 1-0 CF Montreal
2025-07-05
Inter Miami 4-1 CF Montreal
2025-05-28
Inter Miami 4-2 CF Montreal
2024-05-11
Inter Miami 3-2 CF Montreal
2024-03-10
Inter Miami 2-3 CF Montreal
2023-05-27
Inter Miami 0-1 CF Montreal
2023-02-26
Inter Miami 2-0 CF Montreal
2023-02-16
Inter Miami 1-2 CF Montreal
2022-10-09
Inter Miami 1-3 CF Montreal
2022-08-06
Inter Miami 2-2 CF Montreal
Full Inter Miami vs CF Montreal head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.6%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
5.5%
3-2
4.3%
4-1
3.7%
4-0
3.0%
4-2
2.3%
5-1
1.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
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Under 3 second half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Under 13.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Under 5 goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Inter Miami under 8.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Over 2.5 goals
81%
@1.32
Betano
-
Under 2.5 first half goals
81%
@1.28
10Bet
-
Inter Miami over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.30
Betano
-
Inter Miami under 3.5 goals
79%
@1.33
Bet365
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Over 1 first half goals
79%
@1.35
Betano
-
CF Montreal under 5.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
CF Montreal over 0.5 goals
78%
@1.36
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →