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A MLS tie. Our model makes it New York Red Bulls 0%, the draw 0%, Philadelphia Union 0%.
Philadelphia Union are no pushovers away from home. W9 D2 L7 from 18 away trips, scoring 1.3 per game on the road. New York Red Bulls (W10 D3 L4 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Philadelphia Union have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York Red Bulls create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Philadelphia Union create 1.7 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Philadelphia Union look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
New York Red Bulls average 1.4 goals per game and Philadelphia Union manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.1. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Philadelphia Union Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.