Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions & Odds
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Hamburger SV have taken 8 points from their last six; FSV Mainz 05 have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.
FSV Mainz 05 are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 2.1 against 1.5 actual goals). They look due a few more. The gap in chance quality is clear: FSV Mainz 05 come out at +0.7 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -1.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for FSV Mainz 05: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hamburger SV create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 2.3), leaving them -1.0 a game on the balance. FSV Mainz 05 create 2.1 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, FSV Mainz 05 look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. FSV Mainz 05 are creating chances worth 2.1 a game but only finishing 1.5. the underlying performance is better than the results show. FSV Mainz 05's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Hamburger SV are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and FSV Mainz 05 manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 71% of Hamburger SV's home games and 65% of FSV Mainz 05's away matches.
Hamburger SV are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at FSV Mainz 05, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Don't underestimate the visitors. FSV Mainz 05 create chances worth 2.1 a game and Hamburger SV give up chances worth 2.3 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
In the last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV have won 3, FSV Mainz 05 3, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV, Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05, Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05, FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 2-1 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hamburger SV Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | FSV Mainz 05 Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.