Who is favourite to win Derby vs Swansea?

Our model rates Derby as the favourite with a 42.9% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Derby 42.9%, draw 25.2%, Swansea 33.9%.

Where can I watch Derby vs Swansea?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Derby vs Swansea?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 46.9% probability and Under 2.5 goals 53.1%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 816 picks Championship Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:30

Derby vs Swansea Predictions & Odds

D Derby 42.9% @2.20

VS Draw 25.2%

S Swansea 33.9% @3.10

Our model call Leans Derby, but only just A 43% call, draw at 25%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Derby 43% 2.20 Draw 25% 3.30 Swansea 34% 3.10

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 53% 1.90 Over 2.5 47% 2.00 Over 1.5 @1.33

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 44% 2.00 Yes 56% 1.75

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	46.9%	53.2%	6 pts under
Draw	25.2%	31.2%	6 pts under
Both Teams to Score	55.8%	58.8%	3 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 65% of Derby home games

01The read

Derby vs Swansea: Can the Hosts Deliver?

The model makes Derby 43% favourites here. Swansea carry the 34% upset.

Derby slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

A Championship meeting between Derby (17th, 1 pts) and Swansea (8th, 4 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.

Our verdict

Marginal call: Derby at just 43%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Derby, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Derby's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

▸ Form & goals

Swansea are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Derby (W0 D1 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Derby create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Swansea create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Derby are scoring 1.5 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Swansea manage 1.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%.

Both teams score in 65% of Derby's home games and 48% of Swansea's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Derby need points desperately. Sitting 17th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.

Swansea prefer to keep things tight (0.5 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Derby against this setup.

In the last 10 meetings: Derby have won 4, Swansea 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Derby 2-0 Swansea, Swansea 1-2 Derby, Swansea 1-0 Derby.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Derby HT 2.70
Draw HT 2.20
Swansea HT 3.50

Team Intel

📊 Derby · xG

For: 1.44/g Against: 1.37/g

📊 Swansea · xG

For: 1.40/g Against: 1.50/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Derby vs Swansea Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Derby Win	@2.20	42.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.30	25.2%	William Hill
Match Result	Swansea Win	@3.10	33.9%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.75	55.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.00	44.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.00	46.9%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.90	53.1%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.33	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.59	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.34	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Derby

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLLLW

At home DLLW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 65% FTS 9%

Swansea

2 unbeaten

Last 5 DWLWD

On the road WDW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 54% FTS 22%

Derby vs Swansea Team Stats

Derby County FC

Position 17

Played 2

Record 0W-1D-1L

Goals F/A 3/4

Avg Goals Scored 1.50

Points 1

Overall Form DLLLW

Home Form DLLW

Home Record 0W-1D-0L

Swansea City AFC

Position 8

Played 2

Record 1W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 2/1

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 4

Overall Form DWLWD

Away Form WDW

Away Record 1W-0D-0L

Derby vs Swansea Head to Head

4 Home Wins 2 Draws 4 Away Wins

2.2 Avg Goals

5/10 BTTS

5/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-14 Derby 2-0 Swansea

2025-11-25 Derby 2-1 Swansea

2025-04-05 Derby 0-1 Swansea

2024-11-27 Derby 1-2 Swansea

2022-04-09 Derby 1-2 Swansea

2021-10-02 Derby 0-0 Swansea

2021-05-01 Derby 1-2 Swansea

2020-12-16 Derby 2-0 Swansea

2020-02-08 Derby 3-2 Swansea

2019-08-10 Derby 0-0 Swansea

Full Derby vs Swansea head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 12.3%

1-1 12.3%

0-2 9.2%

1-2 9.2%

0-0 8.2%

1-0 8.2%

2-1 6.2%

0-3 4.6%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 0.5 second half goals 83% @1.25 William Hill
Derby over 0.5 goals 83% @1.25 Bet365
Over 1.5 goals 81% @1.33 Bet365
Derby under 2 goals 81% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Under 2 second half goals 80% @1.25 Marathon Bet
Under 3.5 goals 79% @1.34 Betano
Derby or Swansea (double chance) 78% @1.36 Bet365
Derby or Draw (double chance) 75% @1.37 Betano
Swansea over 0.5 goals 75% @1.40 Bet365
Over 0.5 first half goals 74% @1.44 Betano
Under 1.5 first half goals 74% @1.42 Betano
Swansea under 1.5 goals 74% @1.42 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Derby v Swansea builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 74% @ 1.35
2 Over 1.5 Goals 74% @ 1.35

@1.83 £10 returns £18.29

View full breakdown

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The record

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Derby vs Swansea: FAQs

Who will win Derby vs Swansea?

Our model makes Derby the favourite with a 42.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Derby vs Swansea?

Best available odds: Derby @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.30, Swansea @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Derby vs Swansea kick off?

Derby vs Swansea kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 55.8% probability.

Derby vs Swansea prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Derby to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.