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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 27.0% | 32.3% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.8% | 54.1% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Crawley Town's attack against Crewe Alexandra's back line.
Crawley Town take on Crewe Alexandra in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Crawley Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Crewe Alexandra travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Crawley Town edge it at 48% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our model spots value here: Crawley Town to win at @2.50 (our model: 48%, bookmakers imply: 40%). A 8% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Crawley Town average 1.0 goals per game and Crewe Alexandra manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 57% of Crawley Town's home games and 57% of Crewe Alexandra's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Crawley Town Win | @2.50 | 48.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Crewe Alexandra Win | @2.62 | 40.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 51.2% | William Hill |
Our model makes Crawley Town the favourite with a 48.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Crawley Town @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.10, Crewe Alexandra @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Crawley Town vs Crewe Alexandra kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Crawley Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.