03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Club Brugge KV Win |
30.3% |
39.1% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
53.2% |
61.0% |
8 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
58.5% |
65.4% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Can Aston Villa Get the Job Done at Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV 30%, the draw 27%, Aston Villa 43%. That's the shape of this one.
Aston Villa slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Club Brugge KV at @2.70 for this Champions League tie, with Aston Villa out at @2.40.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Aston Villa at 43%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
Aston Villa have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Club Brugge KV are scoring 2.3 a game (3.1 of those at home) and Aston Villa manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 59%. Two or more goals at @1.22 is a steadier alternative for accas.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Club Brugge KV need points desperately. Sitting 19th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Club Brugge KV are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Aston Villa, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (8%) and 2-1 (8%).
First Half Result
-
Club Brugge KV HT
3.20
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
Aston Villa HT
2.80
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Aston Villa · xG
For: 1.37/g
Against: 1.53/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.43/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Club Brugge KV Win |
@2.70
|
30.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
26.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Aston Villa Win |
@2.40
|
43.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.60
|
58.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.30
|
41.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
53.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.25
|
46.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.60
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa Team Stats
Club Brugge KV
Position
19
Played
14
Record
7W-2D-5L
Goals F/A
32/27
Avg Goals Scored
2.30
Points
10
Home Record
4W-2D-1L
Aston Villa
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
4.9%
1-3
4.8%
1-0
4.6%
0-1
4.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
Smart
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Over 2.5 cards
77%
@1.30
Unibet
Combined 1.89
· £5 returns
£9.43
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.19
BetVictor
-
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 shots on target
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.29
Betano
-
Club Brugge KV or Aston Villa (double chance)
82%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Club Brugge KV over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Aston Villa under 6.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
79%
@1.36
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →