Get the model's verified verdict on Tottenham (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
The model makes Tottenham 66% favourites here. Charlton carry the 16% upset.
Tottenham have taken 7 points from their last five; Charlton have won three straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this EFL Cup tie.
Our PickTottenham to win at @1.25. Model probability 66% vs implied 80%. The market is 14pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
The gap in chance quality is clear: Tottenham come out at +0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Tottenham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Charlton create 1.2 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour Tottenham. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tottenham are scoring 1.1 a game (1.1 of those at home) and Charlton manage 1.7 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.4 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%) and 3-1 (3%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tottenham Win | @1.25 | 65.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.50 | 18.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Charlton Win | @9.50 | 16.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 45.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.75 | 54.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 65.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.60 | 34.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.68 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Tottenham the favourite with a 65.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Tottenham @ 1.25, Draw @ 5.50, Charlton @ 9.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Tottenham vs Charlton kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.