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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
42% against 37%: the model can barely split CF Montreal and Los Angeles Galaxy.
CF Montreal have taken five points from their last five; Los Angeles Galaxy have lost three of their last six. Form gives little away going into this MLS tie.
P. Owusu has been CF Montreal's spearhead, with 12 goals and 6 assists in 19 appearances, averaging 1.16 shots on target per game. M. Reus has been Los Angeles Galaxy's main threat, with 4 goals and 6 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.55 shots on target per game.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.60. Model probability 62% vs implied 63%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
CF Montreal will be looking to make home advantage count (W2 D6 L9 at home). Los Angeles Galaxy's away record reads W0 D7 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. CF Montreal's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
CF Montreal create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Los Angeles Galaxy create 1.5 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
CF Montreal average 1.0 goals per game and Los Angeles Galaxy manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.4. Even so, we make it 62% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%.
Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
In the last 9 meetings: CF Montreal have won 1, Los Angeles Galaxy 5, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.4 goals per game. 4 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Los Angeles Galaxy 4-0 CF Montreal, Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 CF Montreal, CF Montreal 0-1 Los Angeles Galaxy.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | CF Montreal Win | @2.10 | 42.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.70 | 22.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Los Angeles Galaxy Win | @2.80 | 37.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 57.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.40 | 42.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.60 | 62.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.43 | 38.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.56 | - | Bet365 |
Full CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head history →
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 4.92 · £5 returns £24.59
Our model makes CF Montreal the favourite with a 42.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: CF Montreal @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.70, Los Angeles Galaxy @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.