New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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In-form Chicago Fire travel to New York Red Bulls knowing momentum is on their side.
New York Red Bulls welcome Chicago Fire in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. New York Red Bulls will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Chicago Fire travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Chicago Fire are no pushovers away from home. W9 D2 L7 from 18 away trips, scoring 2.5 per game on the road. New York Red Bulls (W10 D3 L4 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Chicago Fire have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Chicago Fire could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.8. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York Red Bulls create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Chicago Fire create 1.8 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.5. On the quality of chances, Chicago Fire look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Chicago Fire are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.8). Both runs could cool off at once.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. New York Red Bulls average 1.4 goals per game and Chicago Fire manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.4. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Chicago Fire have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.8 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Chicago Fire Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.