Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
C
C. Olivera
1+ Shots on Target
62% (model)
C. Olivera averages 0.88 SoT/match (16 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. Carbonero
1+ Shots on Target
52% (model)
J. Carbonero averages 0.82 SoT/match (22 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
L
Luciano Juba
1+ Shots on Target
50% (model)
Luciano Juba averages 0.63 SoT/match (19 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
A
A. Bernabéi
1+ Shots on Target
49% (model)
A. Bernabéi averages 0.75 SoT/match (20 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
R
R. Borré
1+ Shots on Target
45% (model)
R. Borré averages 0.67 SoT/match (18 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
48% (model)
Corners: Bahia avg 4.6 for/4.0 against, Internacional avg 3.6 for/4.8 against → expected 8.5 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
38% (model)
Cards: Bahia avg 1.7/game, Internacional avg 2.4/game → expected 4.1 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
65% (model)
Fouls: Bahia avg 11.2/game, Internacional avg 15.4/game → expected 26.6 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
36% (model)
Shots: Bahia avg 10.0/game, Internacional avg 11.0/game → expected 21.0 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Bahia Host Internacional: Our Prediction
The model makes Bahia 49% favourites here. Internacional carry the 26% upset.
Bahia (7th, 60 pts) host Internacional (16th, 44 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Jean Lucas has been Bahia's spearhead, with 2 goals and 3 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.25 shots on target per game. J. Carbonero has been Internacional's main threat, with 6 goals and 3 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 0.82 shots on target per game.
Key men
J
Jean Lucas
Bahia · Midfielder
2 goals · 3 assists in 20 apps
0.3 shots on target a game
J
J. Carbonero
Internacional · Attacker
6 goals · 3 assists in 22 apps
0.8 shots on target a game
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Bahia have won 14 of 19 at home (73%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
🚫
Poor Away Form
Internacional have won just 3 of 19 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
🔥
Chances Flowing
Bahia creating chances worth 2.2 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Bahia's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Bahia have gone D-D-D-D-D, Internacional's D-D-D-L-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve. Interestingly, Bahia look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.3 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Bahia have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.8. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bahia create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Internacional create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bahia. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bahia should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.3 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Bahia are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.2 a game over the last 5 vs 1.8 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bahia are scoring 1.3 a game (1.7 of those at home) and Internacional manage 1.2 (0.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Bahia have won 3, Internacional 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.1 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Internacional 0-1 Bahia, Internacional 2-2 Bahia, Bahia 1-0 Internacional.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Bahia HT
2.45
-
Draw HT
2.15
-
Internacional HT
4.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Bahia · xG
For: 1.83/g
Against: 1.08/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.73/g, value possible
📊 Internacional · xG
For: 1.16/g
Against: 1.18/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Bahia vs Internacional Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Bahia Win |
@1.91
|
49.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.25
|
25.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Internacional Win |
@3.90
|
25.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.85
|
50.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
49.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.00
|
51.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.94
|
48.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.80
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Bahia vs Internacional Team Stats
Bahia
Position
7
Played
38
Record
17W-9D-12L
Goals F/A
50/46
Avg Goals Scored
1.30
Points
60
Overall Form
DDDDD
Home Form
DDWWD
Home Record
14W-3D-2L
Internacional
Position
16
Played
38
Record
11W-11D-16L
Goals F/A
44/57
Avg Goals Scored
1.20
Points
44
Overall Form
DDDLL
Away Form
DLLLD
Away Record
3W-5D-11L
Bahia vs Internacional Head to Head
3 Home Wins
3 Draws
4 Away Wins
2.1
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
3/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-15
Bahia 1-0 Internacional
2025-11-08
Bahia 2-2 Internacional
2025-10-22
Bahia 1-0 Internacional
2025-05-28
Bahia 1-2 Internacional
2025-04-03
Bahia 1-1 Internacional
2024-07-27
Bahia 1-1 Internacional
2024-04-13
Bahia 1-2 Internacional
2023-10-19
Bahia 1-0 Internacional
2023-05-28
Bahia 0-2 Internacional
2021-09-26
Bahia 0-2 Internacional
Full Bahia vs Internacional head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-1
1.4%
4-0
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.29
888Sport
-
Bahia under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Bahia over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.22
Betano
-
Under 13.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Bahia over 3.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Bahia or Draw (double chance)
82%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Under 2 second half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Internacional under 6.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 3.5 goals
80%
@1.36
Unibet
-
Bahia under 7.5 corners
79%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Internacional under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.40
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →