Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Predictions & Odds
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Tricky away day for Stade Brestois 29 (4th, 5 pts) as they travel to Auxerre (18th, 0 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Stade Brestois 29 are no pushovers away from home. W1 D1 L0 from 2 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Auxerre (W0 D0 L1 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Crucially, Auxerre are in strong home form while Stade Brestois 29 are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Stade Brestois 29 average 1.7 points per game compared to Auxerre's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. One thing to keep in mind about Auxerre. They're scoring 1.3 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 0.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.6), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Auxerre create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Stade Brestois 29 create 1.1 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Auxerre are scoring 1.3 goals a game off chances worth just 0.9. That's +0.6 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Auxerre are scoring 1.3 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Stade Brestois 29 manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 75%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 70%. Auxerre score in 53% of their games and Stade Brestois 29 in 68%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.1 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Both teams score in 35% of Auxerre's home games and 47% of Stade Brestois 29's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Auxerre need points desperately. Sitting 18th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Stade Brestois 29 have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.7 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Auxerre have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 5, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29, Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Auxerre, Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Auxerre, Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%) and 1-3 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Auxerre Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Stade Brestois 29 Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 69.8% probability.