Nice vs Lille Predictions & Odds
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Tricky away day for Lille (3rd, 7 pts) as they travel to Nice (15th, 2 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Lille are no pushovers away from home. W2 D0 L0 from 2 away trips, scoring 1.5 per game on the road. Nice (W0 D2 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Season-long, Lille average 2.3 points per game compared to Nice's 0.7. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Nice look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.1 a game, but they're only converting 0.3 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lille come out at +0.9 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Nice create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Lille create 1.5 (giving up 0.6) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, Lille look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Nice should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.1 a game but they're only getting 0.3 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Nice average 0.3 goals per game and Lille manage 1.7. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 41%.
Both teams score in 53% of Nice's home games and 29% of Lille's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Lille prefer to keep things tight (0.7 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Nice against this setup.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (20%) and 0-2 (15%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Nice Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Lille Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Nice vs Lille kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 16:15 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 40.8% probability.