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Three points on the line and a story to write. Atlanta United FC host New York Red Bulls.
A MLS fixture between Atlanta United FC and New York Red Bulls. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Atlanta United FC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while New York Red Bulls travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 67% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Atlanta United FC will be looking to make home advantage count (W4 D8 L5 at home). New York Red Bulls's away record reads W2 D4 L11. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Atlanta United FC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Interestingly, Atlanta United FC look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.3 a game, but they're only converting 1.1 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. A concern for New York Red Bulls: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Atlanta United FC create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. New York Red Bulls create 1.2 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Atlanta United FC should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.3 a game but they're only getting 1.1 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. A worry for Atlanta United FC: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.0 a game, well below their 1.3 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. New York Red Bulls's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Atlanta United FC are scoring 1.1 a game (1.7 of those at home) and New York Red Bulls manage 1.4 (0.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 67%. Atlanta United FC score in 62% of their games and New York Red Bulls in 74%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atlanta United FC Win | @1.75 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 20.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @3.50 | 26.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 67.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.62 | 32.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.44 | 66.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.70 | 33.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite with a 51.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Atlanta United FC @ 1.75, Draw @ 4.00, New York Red Bulls @ 3.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.