Toulouse crestEstac Troyes crest

Toulouse v Estac Troyes bet builder

Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 · Ligue 1

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record
  • Toulouse or draw

    80%+ the model

    Record this market has landed 83% across 284 graded picks

    The pre-match read for this game is double chance, Toulouse or draw (90%). Double chance is our strongest verified market.

    1.11 +
  • Over 2.5 Goals

    76% the model

    Record this market has landed 64% across 118 graded picks

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 1.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 76%.

    1.31 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 69% chance all land
1.46

The model puts this 2-leg build at 69% combined for Toulouse v Estac Troyes. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 79% 1.19 +
  • Under 4.5 Goals 77% 1.22 +
  • Toulouse Home Win 63% 1.60 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 60% 1.52 +
  • Toulouse (first half) First Half 50% 2.09 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • J. Russell-Rowe Toulouse
    Shots on target 1+

    J. Russell-Rowe: 1.00 shots on target a game over 7 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • T. Jørgensen Toulouse
    Shots on target 1+

    T. Jørgensen: 0.86 shots on target a game over 7 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • R. Ripart Estac Troyes
    Shots on target 1+

    R. Ripart: 0.71 shots on target a game over 7 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 9.5 Match Corners 42%
    Corners: Toulouse avg 3.9 for/4.2 against, Estac Troyes avg 7.7 for/2.3 against so expected 9.0 match corners
  • Over 6.5 Match Corners 80%+
    Corners: Toulouse avg 3.9 for/4.2 against, Estac Troyes avg 7.7 for/2.3 against so expected 9.0 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 3.5 Match Cards 55%
    Cards: Toulouse avg 1.6/game, Estac Troyes avg 2.3/game so expected 3.9 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 75%
    Cards: Toulouse avg 1.6/game, Estac Troyes avg 2.3/game so expected 3.9 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 46%
    Fouls: Toulouse avg 13.2/game, Estac Troyes avg 11.0/game so expected 24.2 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 77%
    Fouls: Toulouse avg 13.2/game, Estac Troyes avg 11.0/game so expected 24.2 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 26.5 Match Shots 79%
    Shots: Toulouse avg 13.1/game, Estac Troyes avg 18.0/game so expected 31.1 match shots
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Toulouse avg 13.1/game, Estac Troyes avg 18.0/game so expected 31.1 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Over 7 corners 85% market 1xBet
    1.18 +
  • Toulouse under 3 goals 83% market Marathon Bet
    1.20 +
  • Estac Troyes over 2.5 corners 83% market Betano
    1.23 +
  • Under 2 first half goals 82% market Marathon Bet
    1.22 +
  • Under 11.5 corners 82% market Betano
    1.24 +
  • Under 4 goals 81% market BetVictor
    1.26 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Over 2 goals 80% market BetVictor
    1.27 +
  • Under 5.5 cards 79% market Betano
    1.26 +
  • Toulouse over 3.5 corners 79% market Betano
    1.29 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 78% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Estac Troyes under 1.5 goals 78% market BetVictor
    1.29 +
Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.