Liverpool crestChelsea crest

Liverpool v Chelsea bet builder

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 20:00 · EFL Cup

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Chelsea or draw

    60% the model

    Our board prices this at 60%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.67 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 3.50 and 4.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.01 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 59% chance all land
1.69

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Liverpool v Chelsea, 59% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 77% 1.19 +
  • Liverpool or Draw Double Chance 71% 1.40 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 62% 1.44 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • João Pedro Chelsea
    Shots on target 1+

    João Pedro: 1.20 shots on target a game over 5 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • C. Gakpo Liverpool
    Shots on target 1+

    C. Gakpo: 0.20 shots on target a game over 5 games [WC form: 1.74/90 over 3 games (258 min), 38% weight

  • C. Palmer Chelsea
    Shots on target 1+

    C. Palmer: 0.83 shots on target a game over 6 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • M. Rogers Chelsea
    Shots on target 1+

    M. Rogers: 1.00 shots on target a game over 6 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 2 games (108 min), 20% weight

  • Pedro Neto Chelsea
    Shots on target 1+

    Pedro Neto: 0.83 shots on target a game over 6 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 2 games (135 min), 24% weight

  • Víctor Muñoz Liverpool
    Shots on target 1+

    Víctor Muñoz: 0.40 shots on target a game over 5 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 10.5 Match Corners 49%
    Corners: Liverpool avg 5.4 for/5.1 against, Chelsea avg 5.9 for/4.9 against so expected 10.6 match corners
  • Over 8.5 Match Corners 73%
    Corners: Liverpool avg 5.4 for/5.1 against, Chelsea avg 5.9 for/4.9 against so expected 10.6 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 41%
    Cards: Liverpool avg 2.1/game, Chelsea avg 2.1/game so expected 4.2 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 79%
    Cards: Liverpool avg 2.1/game, Chelsea avg 2.1/game so expected 4.2 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Fouls 51%
    Fouls: Liverpool avg 12.9/game, Chelsea avg 9.9/game so expected 22.8 match fouls
  • Over 18.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Liverpool avg 12.9/game, Chelsea avg 9.9/game so expected 22.8 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 26.5 Match Shots 56%
    Shots: Liverpool avg 11.6/game, Chelsea avg 15.9/game so expected 27.5 match shots
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Liverpool avg 11.6/game, Chelsea avg 15.9/game so expected 27.5 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Over 0.5 second half goals 85% market 1xBet
    1.18 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 84% market Bet365
    1.20 +
  • Liverpool over 0.5 goals 84% market 1xBet
    1.19 +
  • Liverpool under 2.5 goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.20 +
  • Chelsea under 2 goals 82% market 1xBet
    1.22 +
  • Under 4 goals 81% market 1xBet
    1.23 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market 1xBet
    1.25 +
  • Chelsea over 0.5 goals 79% market 1xBet
    1.27 +
  • Liverpool or Chelsea (double chance) 78% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 78% market 1xBet
    1.29 +
  • Liverpool or Draw (double chance) 71% market Bet365
    1.40 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.