The record
Every call the model publishes, locked before kick-off and graded against the result. Losses included, nothing deleted.
Last updated 12 Nov 2026, 17:16
The model's calls, graded
Information, not what we stake. Every call the model publishes on a league on the record, locked before kick-off. A hit rate is not a profit: a short price needs a high one. That is why the singles we stake are a stricter set.
Calls graded
Won / lost
Hit rate
Monthly breakdown
Wins and losses, month by month. Tap a bar for the count.
Feb 26
Mar 26
Apr 26
May 26
Jun 26
Jul 26
Aug 26
Sep 26
Oct 26
Nov 26
Wins
Losses
Breakdown by market
Every market we have graded, with its hit rate on the record.
Over 1.5 goals
Double chance: home or draw
Home win
Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score: yes
Draw no bet: home
Away win
Under 3.5 goals
Double chance: home or away
Under 4.5 goals
Double chance: away or draw
Both teams to score: no
Markets with fewer than 10 verified picks hidden. Too small a sample to draw conclusions.
Calibration by confidence
For each probability band: what the model predicted vs what actually happened. Close to zero = well-calibrated.
80%+
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Green = within 5pp (calibrated). Gold = over-delivering (actual beat the prediction). Red = under-delivering. Small samples are noisy. Weigh bands with more picks more heavily.
Breakdown by league
The same record, split by competition.
Championship
League One
League Two
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
Ligue 1
Bundesliga
Champions League
World Cup
Brazilian Série A
The model's next calls Locked before kick-off
Already locked into the record above, timestamped before their games kick off. Whatever happens, they grade in public. Every call, priced
Exeter City v Cheltenham
Over 1.5 goals
League Two
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 4 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Sat 14 Nov, 12:30
locked 11 Nov, 08:30
Crewe v Newport County
Over 1.5 goals
League Two
over 1.5 landed in 11 of the sides' last 12 games (home 6 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
locked 11 Nov, 08:30
Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Over 1.5 goals
League One
over 1.5 landed in 10 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
locked 11 Nov, 08:30
Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
Double chance: home or draw
League Two
home unbeaten in 5 of 6
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
locked 11 Nov, 08:30
Salford City v Northampton
Over 1.5 goals
League Two
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 4 of 6)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
locked 12 Nov, 08:30
Shrewsbury v Oldham
Over 1.5 goals
League Two
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 4 of 6)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
locked 11 Nov, 08:30
Stockport County v Reading
Double chance: home or draw
League One
home unbeaten in 5 of 6
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
locked 11 Nov, 08:30
Full pick history
Every graded pick, newest first. Filter by market, league, result or date.
| Date | Match | League | Pick | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov |
  Fiorentina v Juventus
2-2
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
75%
|
1.22 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 75% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 12/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-2, 4 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  SC Freiburg v Union Berlin
2-0
|
Bundesliga |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 3/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Celta Vigo v Levante
0-0
|
La Liga |
Double chance: home or draw
79%
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Celta Vigo or the draw a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 0-0.
|
| 8 Nov |
Celta Vigo v Levante
0-0
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.26 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-0, only 0 goals, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano
1-0
|
La Liga |
Double chance: home or draw
80%+
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Real Sociedad or the draw a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 5 of 6.
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 1-0.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Le Mans v Monaco
1-1
|
Ligue 1 |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-1, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Brest v Lyon
2-0
|
Ligue 1 |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.26 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 12/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Le Havre v Lorient
0-2
|
Ligue 1 |
Over 1.5 goals
76%
|
1.29 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 76% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 3/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 0-2, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Brighton v Brentford
2-0
|
Premier League |
Double chance: home or draw
77%
|
1.20 |
Won
The model made Brighton or the draw a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 5 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Ipswich v Bournemouth
1-2
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.18 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-2, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Rennes v Lille
1-2
|
Ligue 1 |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-2, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Napoli v Lazio
1-1
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
78%
|
1.16 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 78% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-1, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 8 Nov |
  AS Roma v Sassuolo
3-0
|
Serie A |
Home win
75%
|
1.25 |
Won
The model made AS Roma to win a strong 75% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home won 4 of 6 · away won 0 of 6 and lost 5 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 3-0.
|
| 8 Nov |
  Paris Saint Germain v Estac Troyes
1-0
|
Ligue 1 |
Home win
70%
|
1.10 |
Won
The model made Paris Saint Germain to win a 70% lean before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home won 6 of 6 · away won 1 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-0.
|
| 7 Nov |
  Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
3-1
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
78%
|
1.16 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 78% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 3-1, 4 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 7 Nov |
  Leeds v Tottenham
1-0
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.27 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 1-0, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 7 Nov |
  Fulham v Newcastle
1-1
|
Premier League |
Double chance: home or draw
79%
|
1.26 |
Won
The model made Fulham or the draw a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 4 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-1.
|
| 7 Nov |
  Arsenal v Hull City
1-0
|
Premier League |
Home win
76%
|
1.13 |
Won
The model made Arsenal to win a strong 76% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home won 5 of 6 · away won 0 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-0.
|
| 7 Nov |
  Cardiff v Burnley
5-4
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
80%+
|
1.11 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6).
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 5-4, 9 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 7 Nov |
  Birmingham v Swansea
2-1
|
Championship |
Double chance: home or draw
80%+
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Birmingham or the draw a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 5 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6.
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 2-1.
|
Showing 20 of 1280
Disclaimer: Odds shown are the best available at the time the prediction was recorded. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
A note from 20 August: nine MLS double-chance picks, three won and six lost, had been published under an automatic promotion. When promotions became a human decision they were moved out of this headline count. They stay graded in the full history above.
Pro
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.