The Model Board: every pick carries its evidence

No tips without receipts. A pick only makes this board when both teams' recent form agrees with the market it's calling, it's locked and timestamped before kickoff, and it grades on the public record whatever happens. Every graded result feeds back in, so the model gets sharper with every game it calls.

72% over 1021 graded picks locked before kickoff evidence on every pick

How to read a pick

The evidence line

agreed in 11/12 means the call landed in 11 of the two teams' last 12 games combined: home 5/6 is the home side's last six, away 6/6 the away side's.

The lock

Every pick shows when it was logged. Once locked it cannot be edited or quietly deleted; it grades into the record above win or lose.

The gate

Picks where the form disagrees with the model never reach this board. They still get graded internally, which is how the model keeps learning.

On the board now

Locked, timestamped, grading next. Add a pick straight to your slip or open the fixture's builder.

Bayern München Bundesliga 76% Bayern München to win Union Berlin
home won 5/6 · away won 2/6 and lost 3/6
Fri 18 Sept, 19:30 locked 15 Sept, 08:30 Build this bet
Brentford Premier League 80%+ Over 1.5 Chelsea
over 1.5 agreed in 12/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 6/6)
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 locked 9 Sept, 23:02 Build this bet
Bristol City Championship 76% Over 1.5 Watford
over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6)
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 locked 16 Sept, 19:56 Build this bet
Espanyol La Liga Pro Elche
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 locked 16 Sept, 19:56
Burton Albion League One Pro Mansfield Town
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 locked 17 Sept, 19:51
Cardiff Championship Pro Charlton
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 locked 16 Sept, 06:20
Tottenham Premier League Pro Aston Villa
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 locked 16 Sept, 09:06
Barnet League Two Pro Fleetwood Town
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 locked 15 Sept, 23:08
Burnley Championship Pro Derby
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 locked 16 Sept, 06:20
Salford City League Two Pro Swindon Town
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 locked 15 Sept, 23:08
Wrexham Championship Pro Southampton
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 locked 17 Sept, 23:54
Paris FC Ligue 1 Pro Strasbourg
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 16:15 locked 10 Sept, 23:39
Celta Vigo La Liga Pro Racing Santander
The receipt behind this call opens with Pro.
Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 locked 14 Sept, 23:01

Recently graded

The loop closing: the last board picks, the evidence they carried, and how they actually ended.

LOST AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 3/6 · away 5/6)
WON Malaga v Villarreal 1-3 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6)
WON Barcelona v Racing Santander 7-2 Home Win Called on: home won 6/6 · away won 3/6 and lost 2/6
WON Atletico Madrid v Osasuna 4-0 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 4/6)
WON Atletico Madrid v Osasuna 4-0 Under 4.5 Goals Called on: under 4.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6)
WON Middlesbrough v Millwall 2-2 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 4/6)
LOST Alaves v Valencia 0-1 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 7/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 2/6)
WON Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol 2-1 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 12/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 6/6)
WON Como v Parma 2-1 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6)
WON Manchester United v Manchester City 0-1 Under 4.5 Goals Called on: under 4.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 5/6)
WON Mirassol v Vitoria 2-2 Double Chance - Home/Draw Called on: home unbeaten in 4/6 · away lost 4/6
WON Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid 0-3 Over 1.5 Goals Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6)

Cup & proving-ground picks

Same model, same evidence receipts, from cup ties and leagues still earning their place. These grade in public too, but they are kept OUT of the headline record above until their competitions prove themselves.

Celtic v Ferencvarosi TC 1-3 Double Chance - Home/Draw Europa League Called on: home unbeaten in 5/6 · away lost 0/6
Real Sociedad v Bournemouth 1-2 Over 1.5 Goals Europa League Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6)
Lillestrom v Torreense 1-2 Over 1.5 Goals Europa League Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6)
Crystal Palace v Lech Poznan 4-0 Over 1.5 Goals Europa League Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6)
Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg 0-1 Over 1.5 Goals Europa League Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 5/6)
OFI v 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Over 2.5 Goals Europa League Called on: over 2.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6)
OFI v 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Over 1.5 Goals Europa League Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6)
Fleetwood Town v Sheffield Utd 1-0 Over 1.5 Goals EFL Cup Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6)
Coventry v Aston Villa 1-3 Over 1.5 Goals EFL Cup Called on: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 4/6)
Scunthorpe v Boreham Wood 1-2 Over 2.5 Goals England National League Called on: over 2.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 5/6)

Every one of these grades into the same public ledger: no cherry-picking, no deleted losses. The full history, filters and running P/L live on the track record.

See the full track record Open the bet builder
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The daily sheet: every leg, with its chance of landing

Every leg on the card ranked by how likely it is to land, the accas built from that list, the facts behind each leg, and the calls the desk refused, with the reason. Locked before kick-off, graded in public, wins and losses alike.

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Cancel any time. 18+. This is analysis and opinion, not betting advice.