Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Tromso Win | 51.8% | 58.8% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Tromso and Valerenga meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Neck and neck in the Eliteserien standings. Tromso (3rd, 57 pts) host Valerenga (6th, 43 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Tromso will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Valerenga travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Tromso edge it at 52% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. We're calling it 2-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Tromso's home record this season is formidable. W10 D1 L4 from 15, scoring 1.6 goals per game at home. Valerenga, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W4 D1 L10 from 15 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Tromso have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.1. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Tromso create chances worth 2.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Valerenga create 1.3 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -0.7. The underlying numbers clearly favour Tromso. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Tromso are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.6 a game over the last 5 vs 2.1 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tromso are scoring 1.7 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Valerenga manage 1.6 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 55% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 52%.
Both sides are in the chasing pack. Tromso (3rd) and Valerenga (6th) are still in touch with the playoff places, and a result here matters.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tromso Win | @1.75 | 51.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Valerenga Win | @4.20 | 23.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.10 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Tromso the favourite with a 51.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Tromso @ 1.75, Draw @ 3.50, Valerenga @ 4.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Tromso vs Valerenga kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 17:00 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Tromso to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.