Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 60.3% | 71.4% | 11 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 52.1% | 62.5% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65.8% | 69.9% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Projected from club-season form — informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only — informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write — KFUM Oslo host Bodo/Glimt.
KFUM Oslo welcome Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
S. Fet has been Bodo/Glimt's main threat — 4 goals and 1 assists in 12 appearances, averaging 0.75 shots on target per game.
We lean towards Bodo/Glimt at 60%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca. Our most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Our PickBodo/Glimt to win at @1.40. Model probability 60% vs implied 71% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Interestingly, KFUM Oslo look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.5 a game, but they're only converting 1.4 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. KFUM Oslo have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.5. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
KFUM Oslo create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 0.9), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Bodo/Glimt create 2.9 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +1.8. On the quality of chances, Bodo/Glimt look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. KFUM Oslo should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.5 a game but they're only getting 1.4 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. KFUM Oslo are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.0 a game over the last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. KFUM Oslo average 1.4 goals per game and Bodo/Glimt manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.4. We make it only 66% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 52%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. KFUM Oslo create chances worth 1.5 a game and Bodo/Glimt 2.9. Combined, that's 4.4 a game from open play alone.
Bodo/Glimt prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for KFUM Oslo against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | KFUM Oslo Win | @6.00 | 16.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.50 | 23.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Bodo/Glimt Win | @1.40 | 60.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 52.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 47.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 65.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.66 | 34.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.59 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.67 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Bodo/Glimt the favourite with a 60.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: KFUM Oslo @ 6.00, Draw @ 4.50, Bodo/Glimt @ 1.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 13:30 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 52.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Bodo/Glimt to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.