Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 54.6% | 65.4% | 11 pts under |
| Sandefjord Win | 47.9% | 54.6% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.9% | 61.7% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam.
A Eliteserien fixture between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sandefjord will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Ham-Kam travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Sandefjord edge it at 48% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. We're calling it 2-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
One thing to keep in mind about Sandefjord. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.5. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4) — that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Sandefjord have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.5. They're creating more as the season goes on. A concern for Ham-Kam: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sandefjord create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Ham-Kam create 1.5 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Sandefjord are scoring 1.8 goals a game off chances worth just 1.5. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest — finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Sandefjord are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game over the last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove. Ham-Kam's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Sandefjord average 1.8 goals per game and Ham-Kam manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 59% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 55%.
Sandefjord are all-out attack — 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Ham-Kam, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Ham-Kam prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Sandefjord against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sandefjord Win | @1.85 | 47.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 25.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Ham-Kam Win | @3.80 | 26.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 54.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.30 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 58.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 41.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Sandefjord the favourite with a 47.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Sandefjord @ 1.85, Draw @ 3.50, Ham-Kam @ 3.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 16:00 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 54.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Sandefjord to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.