Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 53.8% | 64.5% | 11 pts under |
| Fredrikstad Win | 30.1% | 37.0% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
All eyes on Fredrikstad as Lillestrom travel to face Fredrikstad.
Fredrikstad take on Lillestrom in the Eliteserien. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Fredrikstad will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Lillestrom travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Lillestrom at 43%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine. Predicted scoreline: 0-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Fredrikstad create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Lillestrom create 1.5 (giving up 0.6) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, Lillestrom look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Fredrikstad average 1.3 goals per game and Lillestrom manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.3. We make it only 55% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 54%.
Lillestrom prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Fredrikstad against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Fredrikstad Win | @2.70 | 30.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Lillestrom Win | @2.40 | 42.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.10 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.08 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.42 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Lillestrom the favourite with a 42.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Fredrikstad @ 2.70, Draw @ 3.25, Lillestrom @ 2.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 13:00 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Lillestrom to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.