Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 53.1% | 63.7% | 11 pts under |
| Brann Win | 63.4% | 73.5% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66.1% | 70.9% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Brann know what's at stake — and so do Start.
Brann welcome Start in the Eliteserien. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Brann will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Start travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Brann shade it at 63%, though Start won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Brann with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option. Predicted scoreline: 2-1.
Our PickBrann to win at @1.36. Model probability 63% vs implied 74% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Brann average 1.8 goals per game and Start manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 66% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 53%.
Brann are all-out attack — 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.5 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Start, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Start prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Brann against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Brann Win | @1.36 | 63.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.80 | 20.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Start Win | @6.50 | 16.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.65 | 53.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 46.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 66.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.73 | 33.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.70 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Brann the favourite with a 63.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Brann @ 1.36, Draw @ 4.80, Start @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Brann vs Start kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 16:00 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Brann to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.