Toulouse vs Lille Predictions & Odds
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Toulouse are unbeaten in their last four; Lille have taken 7 points from their last four. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
One thing to keep in mind about Toulouse. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.0. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lille come out at +0.9 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Toulouse create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Lille create 1.5 (giving up 0.6) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, Lille look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Toulouse are scoring 1.5 goals a game off chances worth just 1.0. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Toulouse average 1.5 goals per game and Lille manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it 50% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Clean sheets are a feature here. Both teams score in only 41% of Toulouse's home games and 29% of Lille's away fixtures.
Lille prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Toulouse against this setup.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%) and 0-0 (14%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Toulouse Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Lille Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Toulouse vs Lille kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.