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Pachuca arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
Pachuca welcome Puebla in the Liga MX. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Pachuca will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Puebla travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickPachuca to win at @1.36. Model probability 61% vs implied 74%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Pachuca average 1.5 goals per game and Puebla manage 0.7. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 58% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Pachuca Win | @1.36 | 61.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 23.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Puebla Win | @7.50 | 15.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 58.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 41.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Pachuca the favourite with a 61.1% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Pachuca @ 1.36, Draw @ 3.90, Puebla @ 7.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Pachuca vs Puebla kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.