St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Predictions & Odds
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St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last five; Minnesota United FC are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this MLS tie.
M. Hartel has been St. Louis City's spearhead, with 6 goals and 3 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 1.56 shots on target per game. K. Yeboah has been Minnesota United FC's main threat, with 10 goals and 0 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game.
Minnesota United FC could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.7 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.0. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
St. Louis City create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Minnesota United FC create 1.0 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of -0.7. The underlying numbers clearly favour St. Louis City. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Minnesota United FC are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.7 goals vs chance quality of 1.0). Both runs could cool off at once.
St. Louis City average 1.7 goals per game and Minnesota United FC manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.4. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | St. Louis City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Minnesota United FC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.