Sandefjord vs Viking Predictions & Odds
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A Eliteserien meeting between Sandefjord (5th, 48 pts) and Viking (1st, 71 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
E. Patoulidis has been Sandefjord's spearhead, with 3 goals and 0 assists in 17 appearances, averaging 0.65 shots on target per game. Z. Tripić has been Viking's main threat, with 6 goals and 14 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 0.75 shots on target per game.
One thing to keep in mind about Sandefjord. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.5. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Viking could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.2 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.8. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Viking come out at +0.7 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. Sandefjord have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.5. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sandefjord create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Viking create 1.8 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, Viking look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Sandefjord are scoring 1.8 goals a game off chances worth just 1.5. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Viking are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.2 goals vs chance quality of 1.8). Both runs could cool off at once. Sandefjord are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game over the last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Sandefjord average 1.8 goals per game and Viking manage 2.2. Combined that's just 4.0. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Sandefjord and Viking together create chances worth 3.3 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Promotion is on the line. Sandefjord (5th) and Viking (1st) are both in the playoff places. This could determine who goes up.
Sandefjord are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Viking, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Viking have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (1.1 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Viking create chances worth 1.8 a game and Sandefjord give up chances worth 1.5 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sandefjord Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Viking Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Sandefjord vs Viking kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Eliteserien.