Get the model's verified verdict on San Jose Earthquakes (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Form, fitness, fine margins. San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
San Jose Earthquakes take on St. Louis City in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. San Jose Earthquakes will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while St. Louis City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.50. Model probability 65% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
San Jose Earthquakes create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. St. Louis City create 2.0 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of +0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. San Jose Earthquakes are scoring 1.8 a game (2.2 of those at home) and St. Louis City manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 65%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. San Jose Earthquakes create chances worth 1.8 a game and St. Louis City 2.0. Combined, that's 3.8 a game from open play alone.
San Jose Earthquakes are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at St. Louis City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @1.67 | 52.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 21.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | St. Louis City Win | @4.00 | 24.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 56.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.40 | 44.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 65.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.57 | 34.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.67 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
The bookmakers make San Jose Earthquakes the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: San Jose Earthquakes @ 1.67, Draw @ 4.20, St. Louis City @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 03:30 in the MLS.