Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BK Hacken Win | 59.2% | 71.4% | 12 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Örgryte IS know what's at stake — and so do BK Hacken.
A Allsvenskan fixture between Örgryte IS and BK Hacken. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Örgryte IS will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while BK Hacken travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards BK Hacken (59%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Örgryte IS have the tools to make this uncomfortable. We're calling it 0-1.
Our PickBK Hacken to win at @1.40. Model probability 59% vs implied 71% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Örgryte IS average 0.0 goals per game and BK Hacken manage 1.4. Combined that's just 1.4. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Örgryte IS do it the hard way — only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Örgryte IS Win | @5.00 | 18.4% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 22.4% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | BK Hacken Win | @1.40 | 59.2% | Sky Bet |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes BK Hacken the favourite with a 59.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Örgryte IS @ 5.00, Draw @ 4.20, BK Hacken @ 1.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Örgryte IS vs BK Hacken kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 16:30 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is BK Hacken to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.