Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IK Sirius Win | 56.3% | 63.7% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62.0% | 65.4% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: IK Sirius's attack against IF Brommapojkarna's back line.
IF Brommapojkarna take on IK Sirius in the Allsvenskan. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. IF Brommapojkarna will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while IK Sirius travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
IK Sirius shade it at 56%, though IF Brommapojkarna won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing IK Sirius with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option. Predicted scoreline: 2-3.
Our PickIK Sirius to win at @1.67. Model probability 56% vs implied 60% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
IK Sirius could be in for a similar cool-off. 4.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 2.3. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
IF Brommapojkarna create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. IK Sirius create 2.3 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +1.1. On the quality of chances, IK Sirius look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. IK Sirius are also scoring more than their chances suggest (4.0 goals vs chance quality of 2.3). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals look likely here. IF Brommapojkarna average 1.3 per game (1.4 at home) and IK Sirius chip in with 4.0 (4.0 away). Defensively, IF Brommapojkarna concede 2.0 at home and IK Sirius leak 4.0 on the road. We make it 62% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. IF Brommapojkarna create chances worth 1.0 a game and IK Sirius 2.3. Combined, that's 3.3 a game from open play alone.
IK Sirius have goals in them (4.0 per game) but their record at the back (4.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | IF Brommapojkarna Win | @4.40 | 20.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.80 | 23.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | IK Sirius Win | @1.67 | 56.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 62.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.38 | 38.0% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes IK Sirius the favourite with a 56.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: IF Brommapojkarna @ 4.40, Draw @ 3.80, IK Sirius @ 1.67. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
IF Brommapojkarna vs IK Sirius kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is IK Sirius to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.