Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF Win | 44.7% | 52.4% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.2% | 58.1% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Mjällby AIF welcome AIK.
Mjällby AIF welcome AIK in the Allsvenskan. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Mjällby AIF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while AIK travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Mjällby AIF at just 45%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Mjällby AIF, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe. We're calling it 3-2.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Mjällby AIF are scoring 4.0 a game (4.0 of those at home) and AIK manage 1.3 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 54% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Mjällby AIF are all-out attack — 4.0 goals a game, but they leak 4.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at AIK, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Mjällby AIF Win | @1.95 | 44.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 25.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | AIK Win | @3.30 | 29.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 54.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 45.8% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Mjällby AIF the favourite with a 44.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Mjällby AIF @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.60, AIK @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Mjällby AIF vs AIK kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 14:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is Mjällby AIF to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.