Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby IF Win | 63.1% | 76.9% | 14 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62.0% | 65.4% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
All eyes on Hammarby IF as Kalmar FF travel to face Hammarby IF.
Hammarby IF take on Kalmar FF in the Allsvenskan. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Hammarby IF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Kalmar FF travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Hammarby IF shade it at 63%, though Kalmar FF won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Hammarby IF with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our PickHammarby IF to win at @1.40. Model probability 63% vs implied 71% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The odds point towards goals. We make it 62% for three or more.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hammarby IF Win | @1.40 | 63.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.60 | 20.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Kalmar FF Win | @6.50 | 16.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 62.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.40 | 38.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Hammarby IF the favourite with a 63.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Hammarby IF @ 1.40, Draw @ 4.60, Kalmar FF @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Hammarby IF vs Kalmar FF kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 13:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is Hammarby IF to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.