Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Västerås SK Win | 43.7% | 51.3% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.9% | 57.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
All eyes on Västerås SK as Degerfors IF travel to face Västerås SK.
Västerås SK welcome Degerfors IF in the Allsvenskan. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Västerås SK will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Degerfors IF travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Västerås SK at just 44%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Västerås SK, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe. Our most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Västerås SK are scoring 3.0 a game (3.0 of those at home) and Degerfors IF manage 1.1 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 54% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Västerås SK are all-out attack — 3.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Degerfors IF, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Västerås SK Win | @2.10 | 43.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 26.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Degerfors IF Win | @3.40 | 29.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 53.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 46.1% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Västerås SK the favourite with a 43.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Västerås SK @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.10, Degerfors IF @ 3.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Västerås SK vs Degerfors IF kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 13:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is Västerås SK to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.