03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.6% |
35.5% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
34.4% |
40.0% |
6 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
50.0% |
46.5% |
3 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: Who Wins?
Rayo Vallecano 45%, the draw 28%, Alaves 28%. That's the shape of this one.
Rayo Vallecano slight edge (45%) | Lower-scoring game likely (66%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Rayo Vallecano have taken 8 points from their last five; Alaves have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Rayo Vallecano at 45%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Alaves's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Rayo Vallecano's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Rayo Vallecano create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Alaves create 1.4 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Rayo Vallecano average 1.1 goals per game and Alaves manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 34% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Both teams score in 53% of Rayo Vallecano's home games and 53% of Alaves's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Rayo Vallecano but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.25 , which pays out if Rayo Vallecano win or draw, covers 72% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%).
First Half Result
-
Rayo Vallecano HT
2.75
-
Draw HT
1.85
-
Alaves HT
4.75
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Rayo Vallecano · xG
For: 1.49/g
Against: 1.34/g
📊 Alaves · xG
For: 1.43/g
Against: 1.06/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.37/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Rayo Vallecano Win |
@2.10
|
44.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.00
|
27.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Alaves Win |
@3.70
|
27.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.20
|
50.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.62
|
50.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.75
|
34.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.50
|
65.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.57
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@2.54
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@5.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Team Stats
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Position
8
Played
38
Record
12W-14D-12L
Goals F/A
41/44
Avg Goals Scored
1.08
Points
50
Overall Form
LWWDD
Home Form
WDWDW
Alaves
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
12.9%
1-0
10.5%
0-1
10.3%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 2.5 goals
70%
@1.50
Betano
-
Rayo Vallecano under 8.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Alexandre Alemao 1+ shots on target
71%
@1.40
Bet365
-
Raul De Tomas 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
-
Lucas Boye 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
Combined 5.14
· £5 returns
£25.69
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Rayo Vallecano under 8.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Rayo Vallecano or Draw (double chance)
84%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Alaves under 1.5 goals
83%
@1.23
1xBet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
82%
@1.27
Betano
-
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Alaves under 5.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Alaves over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Rayo Vallecano or Alaves (double chance)
77%
@1.39
Marathon Bet
-
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 goals
77%
@1.35
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
76%
@1.40
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →