03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Athletic Club Win |
55.7% |
64.1% |
8 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
47.9% |
50.0% |
2 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
46.3% |
47.6% |
1 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
42% (model)
Corners: Athletic Club avg 5.5 for/2.7 against, Sevilla avg 4.3 for/3.7 against → expected 8.1 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
52% (model)
Cards: Athletic Club avg 1.8/game, Sevilla avg 3.0/game → expected 4.8 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
91% (model)
Fouls: Athletic Club avg 14.0/game, Sevilla avg 18.0/game → expected 32.0 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
12% (model)
Shots: Athletic Club avg 10.5/game, Sevilla avg 7.0/game → expected 17.5 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Red-Hot Sevilla Arrive as Athletic Club Search for Answers
The model makes Athletic Club 56% favourites here. Sevilla carry the 16% upset.
Athletic Club slight edge (56%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Neck and neck in the La Liga standings. Athletic Club (12th, 45 pts) host Sevilla (15th, 43 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
Our verdict
Athletic Club shade it at 56%, though Sevilla won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Athletic Club with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickAthletic Club to win at @1.73. Model probability 56% vs implied 58%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
Sevilla have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
▸ Form & goals
The travelling Sevilla fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads L-L-W-W-W. That L-L-W-W-W away form is genuinely impressive. Athletic Club have been wobbling (L-D-L-L-W) recent form reads L-D-L-L-W. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and Athletic Club will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Athletic Club create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Sevilla create 0.9 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Athletic Club average 1.1 goals per game and Sevilla manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it 46% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 53% of Athletic Club's home games and 58% of Sevilla's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Athletic Club but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.18 , which pays out if Athletic Club win or draw, covers 80% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8%).
First Half Result
-
Athletic Club HT
2.20
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
Sevilla HT
5.80
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Athletic Club · xG
For: 1.03/g
Against: 1.15/g
📊 Sevilla · xG
For: 0.92/g
Against: 1.03/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Athletic Club vs Sevilla Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Athletic Club Win |
@1.73
|
55.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Sevilla Win |
@4.80
|
15.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.05
|
47.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.73
|
52.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.20
|
46.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.73
|
53.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Athletic Club vs Sevilla Team Stats
Athletic Club
Position
12
Played
38
Record
13W-6D-19L
Goals F/A
43/58
Avg Goals Scored
1.13
Points
45
Overall Form
LDLLW
Home Form
DLW
Sevilla FC
Position
15
Played
38
Record
12W-7D-19L
Goals F/A
46/60
Avg Goals Scored
1.21
Points
43
Overall Form
LLWWW
Away Form
LWLL
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
6.0%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
2.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-1
1.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Under 2 second half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Sevilla under 5.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Athletic Club under 8.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Athletic Club or Sevilla (double chance)
82%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.33
10Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 3 goals
78%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
76%
@1.35
10Bet
Build a slip from these markets →