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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 53.8% | 64.5% | 11 pts under |
| Plymouth Win | 38.7% | 47.6% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Stockport County's attack against Plymouth's back line.
Plymouth take on Stockport County in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Plymouth will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Stockport County travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Plymouth at just 39%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Plymouth, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Plymouth are scoring 2.2 a game (2.2 of those at home) and Stockport County manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Plymouth's home games and 61% of Stockport County's away matches.
Plymouth are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Stockport County, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Plymouth Win | @2.25 | 38.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 25.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Stockport County Win | @2.90 | 35.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.60 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.25 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.10 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Plymouth the favourite with a 38.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Plymouth @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.30, Stockport County @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Plymouth vs Stockport County kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Plymouth to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.