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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford Win | 51.3% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 48.1% | 57.8% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52.0% | 55.6% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Bradford arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
A League One fixture between Bradford and Peterborough. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Bradford will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Peterborough travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Bradford at 51%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Neither side has been putting the ball away much. Bradford average just 0.9 goals per game and Peterborough manage 0.8. This doesn't look like a high-scoring one.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Bradford average 0.9 goals per game and Peterborough manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.7. We make it only 52% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 52% of Bradford's home games and 61% of Peterborough's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bradford Win | @1.70 | 51.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 26.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Peterborough Win | @4.80 | 22.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 48.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 52.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 48.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.38 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Bradford the favourite with a 51.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Bradford @ 1.70, Draw @ 3.40, Peterborough @ 4.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Bradford vs Peterborough kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Bradford to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.