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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 48.7% | 58.5% | 10 pts under |
| Leicester Win | 44.0% | 50.5% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.1% | 52.1% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Notts County welcome Leicester.
Notts County take on Leicester in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Notts County will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Leicester travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Leicester edge it at 44% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Notts County average 1.0 goals per game and Leicester manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Notts County's home games and 74% of Leicester's away matches.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Notts County Win | @3.40 | 28.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 27.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leicester Win | @2.05 | 44.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 48.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 49.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.83 | 50.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.32 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Leicester the favourite with a 44.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Notts County @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.20, Leicester @ 2.05. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Notts County vs Leicester kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.7% probability.
Our top prediction is Leicester to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.