Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Our model rates Paris Saint Germain as the favourite with a 63.2% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Paris Saint Germain 63.2%, draw 21.2%, Rennes 15.6%.

Where can I watch Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 69.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 30.8%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

69% verified · 761 picks Ligue 1 Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:45

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes Predictions & Odds

P Paris Saint Germain 63.2% @1.40

VS Draw 21.2%

R Rennes 15.6% @6.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Paris Saint Germain A 63% call, draw at 21%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Paris Saint Germain 63% 1.40 Draw 21% 4.80 Rennes 16% 6.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 31% 3.09 Over 2.5 69% 1.40 Over 1.5 @1.11

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 2.45 Yes 55% 1.55

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Paris Saint Germain Win	63.2%	75.2%	12 pts under
Both Teams to Score	54.6%	65.4%	11 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	69.2%	74.6%	5 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes: Match Preview & Prediction

The model makes Paris Saint Germain 63% favourites here. Rennes carry the 16% upset.

Paris Saint Germain to win (63%) | Three or more goals likely (69%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

The bookmakers open Paris Saint Germain at @1.40 for this Ligue 1 tie, with Rennes out at @6.00.

Our verdict

We lean towards Paris Saint Germain at 63%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.

Our pick

Our PickParis Saint Germain to win at @1.40. Model probability 63% vs implied 71%. The market is 8pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model63%

Market71%

Key facts

🔥

Creative Force Rennes creating chances worth 2.1 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of Paris Saint Germain's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

▸ Form & goals

The gap in chance quality is clear: Paris Saint Germain come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Rennes: they're giving up chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Paris Saint Germain create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Rennes create 1.9 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Paris Saint Germain. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for Paris Saint Germain: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.7 a game, well below their 2.2 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Rennes's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Paris Saint Germain average 2.0 goals per game and Rennes manage 0.0. Combined that's just 2.0. Even so, we make it 69% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Paris Saint Germain create chances worth 2.2 a game and Rennes 1.9. Combined, that's 4.0 a game from open play alone.

Both teams score in 53% of Paris Saint Germain's home games and 47% of Rennes's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Paris Saint Germain are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Rennes, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Rennes prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Paris Saint Germain against this setup. The chance data suggests Paris Saint Germain will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.2 a game and Rennes give up chances worth 1.7 on the road. Expect Paris Saint Germain to see plenty of the ball.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (6%) and 3-0 (3%).

First Half Result

Paris Saint Germain HT 1.80
Draw HT 2.75
Rennes HT 5.50

Team Intel

📊 Paris Saint Germain · xG

For: 2.15/g Against: 1.01/g

📊 Rennes · xG

For: 1.89/g Against: 1.66/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Paris Saint Germain Win	@1.40	63.2%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@4.80	21.2%	William Hill
Match Result	Rennes Win	@6.00	15.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.55	54.6%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.45	45.4%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.40	69.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@3.09	30.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.11	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@7.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.92	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Paris Saint Germain

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLWWD

At home DWDWW

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 62% FTS 26%

Rennes

Clean sheets 29% BTTS 59% FTS 18%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 6.1%

3-0 3.4%

3-1 2.0%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 0.5 first half goals 85% @1.25 Betano
Under 2.5 first half goals 84% @1.22 10Bet
Over 7.5 corners 82% @1.24 Unibet
Paris Saint Germain under 8.5 corners 82% @1.27 Unibet
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals 81% @1.28 Marathon Bet
Under 12.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners 79% @1.28 Unibet
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals 78% @1.35 Betano
Rennes under 1.5 goals 77% @1.35 Betano
Rennes under 4.5 corners 77% @1.40 Betano
Under 4.5 goals 76% @1.36 Bet365
Paris Saint Germain to win 75% @1.44 1xBet

Build a slip from these markets →

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Our Paris Saint Germain v Rennes builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Paris Saint Germain 64% @ 1.56
2 Over 2.5 Goals 72% @ 1.39
3 Both Teams to Score 57% @ 1.77

@3.82 £10 returns £38.18

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 761 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes: FAQs

Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite with a 63.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Best available odds: Paris Saint Germain @ 1.40, Draw @ 4.80, Rennes @ 6.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes kick off?

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 54.6% probability.

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Paris Saint Germain to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.