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The model makes PAOK 56% favourites here. Brann carry the 20% upset.
The bookmakers open PAOK at @1.62 for this Europa Conference League tie, with Brann out at @5.60.
Our PickPAOK to win at @1.62. Model probability 56% vs implied 62%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
PAOK average 0.0 goals per game and Brann manage 2.1. Combined that's just 2.1. Even so, we make it 59% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
PAOK do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Brann have goals in them (2.1 per game) but their record at the back (1.7 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | PAOK Win | @1.62 | 56.0% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.24 | 23.9% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | Brann Win | @5.60 | 20.2% | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.65 | 51.5% | 1xBet |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | 1xBet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 58.9% | Betano |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.34 | 41.1% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.57 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.53 | - | Betano |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes PAOK the favourite with a 56.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: PAOK @ 1.62, Draw @ 4.24, Brann @ 5.60. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
PAOK vs Brann kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 18:45 in the Europa Conference League.