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The model makes FC Nordsjaelland 44% favourites here. FC ST. Gallen carry the 31% upset.
The bookmakers open FC Nordsjaelland at @2.15 for this Europa Conference League tie, with FC ST. Gallen out at @3.30.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.63. Model probability 61% vs implied 61%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
The odds point towards goals. We make it 61% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Nordsjaelland Win | @2.15 | 43.5% | Betano |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.84 | 25.8% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | FC ST. Gallen Win | @3.30 | 30.7% | Betano |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.50 | 56.4% | 1xBet |
| BTTS | No | @2.50 | 43.6% | 1xBet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.63 | 60.6% | 1xBet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.35 | 39.4% | 1xBet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | 1xBet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.57 | - | 1xBet |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes FC Nordsjaelland the favourite with a 43.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: FC Nordsjaelland @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.84, FC ST. Gallen @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC ST. Gallen kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 18:00 in the Europa Conference League.