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FC Midtjylland 52%, the draw 23%, HNK Rijeka 26%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open FC Midtjylland at @1.72 for this Europa Conference League tie, with HNK Rijeka out at @4.80.
FC Midtjylland average 0.0 goals per game and HNK Rijeka manage 1.1. Combined that's just 1.1. We make it 55% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
FC Midtjylland do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. HNK Rijeka prefer to keep things tight (0.6 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for FC Midtjylland against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Midtjylland Win | @1.72 | 51.7% | Betano |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.05 | 22.6% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | HNK Rijeka Win | @4.80 | 25.8% | 1xBet |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.72 | 50.5% | Betano |
| BTTS | No | @2.13 | 49.5% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 54.8% | Betano |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.17 | 45.2% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.24 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.20 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.82 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Betano |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes FC Midtjylland the favourite with a 51.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: FC Midtjylland @ 1.72, Draw @ 4.05, HNK Rijeka @ 4.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 18:00 in the Europa Conference League.