Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Osasuna (5th, 7 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Rayo Vallecano side (18th, 1 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Osasuna will be looking to make home advantage count (W1 D1 L0 at home). Rayo Vallecano's away record reads W0 D0 L2. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Season-long, Osasuna average 2.3 points per game compared to Rayo Vallecano's 0.3. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Osasuna create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Rayo Vallecano create 1.5 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Osasuna average 1.0 goals per game and Rayo Vallecano manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
Both teams score in 74% of Osasuna's home games and 37% of Rayo Vallecano's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Rayo Vallecano travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 18th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Osasuna do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.3 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 10 meetings: Osasuna have won 6, Rayo Vallecano 3, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.6 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna, Osasuna 2-0 Rayo Vallecano, Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano, Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Osasuna.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%) and 2-0 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Osasuna Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Rayo Vallecano Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 50.5% probability.